PinoyPC Forums
Off-Topic Discussions => Lounge => Topic started by: friendlyfire on January 28, 2022, 03:55:19 PM
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what do you think guys? a train hacking just slow down the Russian buildup in Belarus and EU are threatening to remove the swift code to paralyze Russian financial system. doomsday clock just 100 sec to midnight
:(
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NATO expansionism is at the heart of the matter. Russia considers Georgia and Ukraine as "buffer zones" between the West and themselves, by virtue of being next door neighbors. So any attempt to militarize those regions in offering them NATO membership, Russia considers as a direct threat or challenge to its internal security.
To put this in historical perspective, didn't the US also react in similar fashion when Russia established military presence in Cuba which led to the missile crisis in the 60s? Or what if the Chinese decide to establish economic relations with Mexico in exchange for setting up a military presence there, how do you think the Americans will feel and consequently react? The Russians are simply applying their own equivalent of the U.S. Monroe Doctrine.
I think that the best way forward to de-escalate further tensions is for Ukraine to adopt a similar approach taken by Finland (also a next door neighbor of Russia), which is, to become a member of EU and focus solely on its economic initiatives while maintaining neutrality and no longer pursue NATO membership which will only agitate Russia.
I find Professor John Mearsheimer's viewpoint (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JrMiSQAGOS4 (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JrMiSQAGOS4)) on why Ukraine is more the West's fault (rather than Russia's) to be quite insightful and fully agree with it. If anything, his views seem to have aged frighteningly well considering he made this assessment back in 2015 after Russia's annexation of Crimea. Unfortunately, as he points out, this doesn't seem to be the prevailing conventional wisdom in Washington which poses a real risk of miscalculation. Just because we are in the 21st century it doesn't mean that the rules of balance of power politics no longer apply.
Henry Kissinger seems to share this view as well
https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/henry-kissinger-to-settle-the-ukraine-crisis-start-at-the-end/2014/03/05/46dad868-a496-11e3-8466-d34c451760b9_story.html (https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/henry-kissinger-to-settle-the-ukraine-crisis-start-at-the-end/2014/03/05/46dad868-a496-11e3-8466-d34c451760b9_story.html)
The Chinese are closely paying attention to this not only because are they next door neighbors with Russia, but they also have their own issues with the U.S. with Taiwan.
https://www.ft.com/content/51a61659-8caf-4abc-aca7-4a6808917089 (https://www.ft.com/content/51a61659-8caf-4abc-aca7-4a6808917089)
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Putin mentioned in previous interviews that the collapse of the Soviet Union was "the greatest geopolitical tragedy of the 20th century" and moonlighted as a taxi driver in the aftermath. Take it for what it's worth.
Since the fall of the USSR, most of the former Soviet states have always been more inclined to side with the West with the exception of Belarus and maybe some other country that I've overlooked. In the case of Ukraine, when the pro-Russian leader was defeated in the 2014 democratic elections, Putin wasn't happy so Russia invaded Crimea and has been testing and pushing the West's response ever since perhaps in an effort to expose weakness and cracks within the NATO alliance.
More importantly, setting aside what the West and Putin want, we also have to consider what the citizens of the former Eastern-bloc countries' want. NATO doesn't want to budge on its open door policy and the decision to join lies with the people of Ukraine and its sovereignty. The outcome is fairly obvious if things are left as they are so Putin is compelled to do whatever it takes to be in control of the outcome hence the ever present and looming threat to the Eastern European nations in which Russia is perceived as the antagonist as a result.
For me, I just hope all this will only amount to saber rattling and brinkmanship and nothing more.
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I guess we have to look at it from the POV of Russia. Though we also have to understand the experiences of Ukraine and especially Poland when it comes to Russia.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cTRUpxtGM44
How it might go down.
https://youtu.be/UNIU6TRsRzk
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https://www.facebook.com/rusembassy.manila/posts/244465444525420
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True to form, lots of disinformation in their statement. Just like how their MFA claims they liberated Poland in 1945, glossing over the fact that they invaded Poland together with Germany in 1939, or that they did the same to Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania, who they invaded in 1940.
NATO never promised it would not expand, the only promise they made was that non-German troops would not be stationed in the former East Germany.[1 (https://www.rferl.org/a/nato-expansion-russia-mislead/31263602.html)][2 (https://www.brookings.edu/blog/up-front/2014/11/06/did-nato-promise-not-to-enlarge-gorbachev-says-no/)][3 (https://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/mar/08/nato-is-misquoting-mikhail-gorbachev)]
The facts are that Russia invaded Georgia in 2008 and Ukraine in 2014. Nobody in Europe wants to be part of their "sphere of influence", except maybe a few ethnic Russians in eastern Europe.
Saying it's okay for Russia to dictate the foreign policy of its neighbours is as absurd as saying China should be able to do the same about the Philippines.
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i see a china-russia-iran alliance here.
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can they just settle this like the movie rocky 4?
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Slightly off-topic since this happened in the South China Sea, but wow this hit seemed a lot harder than what the news stories would have had us believe.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UGx9FffY0b4
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in us navy every landing is a controlled crash.
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(https://img.youtube.com/vi/0N4TUN_WijI/maxresdefault.jpg)
Aircraft Carrier Philippine Sea 2022 • USS Abraham Lincoln (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0N4TUN_WijI)
para maiba naman..
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"Since 1979, U.S. Does Not Support Taiwan Independence"
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=s-cG1xOqSzw
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What Will Actually Happen if Russia Invades Ukraine
https://youtu.be/pzvbUpKU4eE
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^ they say that mud will be a great factor in the invasion
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I might be wrong but looks like the invasion's going to happen for real. Russia just needs a pretext and a go signal from Putin.
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I hope your premonition misses.... but what is written .....
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Statement of Volodymyr Zelenskyy, President of Ukraine
(https://scontent.fmnl10-1.fna.fbcdn.net/v/t39.30808-6/273987324_5089962777785964_8809632540398083771_n.jpg?_nc_cat=100&ccb=1-5&_nc_sid=dbeb18&_nc_eui2=AeG-FBiILJYtkUeS_FBk_8rwPC0xWo7hhiY8LTFajuGGJuuxCDCPgvjq-edQgo4_q5M&_nc_ohc=4FX3gwmnQN8AX8jJbMp&_nc_oc=AQl4pYXIep98qfw6uUQO1rOTDzWQRa5msvF5j0cxDP5Q2HjJ4xBxhsFIQIW1zHZ5t14&_nc_ht=scontent.fmnl10-1.fna&oh=00_AT-U_OwFbUe14V9HzMa8CwZ_w76z7oAdW3BhxHRFB1TTyA&oe=621013C8)
(https://scontent.fmnl10-1.fna.fbcdn.net/v/t39.30808-6/273884696_5089963437785898_38445988785739722_n.jpg?_nc_cat=108&ccb=1-5&_nc_sid=dbeb18&_nc_eui2=AeERhbtDQ87X34bCblSjQVnV9ydwCqntvmP3J3AKqe2-Y5qLldOz-ZxYJvZXLokNVHo&_nc_ohc=A0pGsr7xDT8AX8O0068&_nc_ht=scontent.fmnl10-1.fna&oh=00_AT-XfmvNWBWM3NNWccwRW7b8tVruLhzh5IQlKXYItdUBgg&oe=6210ABC7)
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Feb. 14 (UPI) -- Aides to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky clarified a statement made Monday as "ironic" in which he declared he had been "told" a Russian invasion would be launched on Wednesday.
Without citing the source of his information, Zelensky on Monday wrote on his personal Facebook page, "We are told that Feb. 16 will be the day of the attack. We will make it the Day of Unity."
https://www.upi.com/Top_News/World-News/2022/02/14/ukraine-russia-invasion-vladimir-putin/8791644839379/
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...looks like russy is pulling back OR are they??? Hmmmm
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This whole thing is looking like a game of chicken between the West and Putin. Cyberattacks against Ukraine are being reported amid the supposed pull-back of some Russian troops. Meanwhile, majority of Ukrainians still aren't receptive to the idea of being ruled by Putin.
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Ang Russian invasion kaya ay parang 1980 Red Dawn? May airborne din?
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https://youtu.be/q6S3yxiKiBU
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Here we go..
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expect prices of commodity to shoot up even more...stock up
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So far Russia is still avoiding to appear as aggressor. Putin is trying to provoke Ukraine and NATO to make the first move.
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Large explosions in the capital of Ukraine
https://youtu.be/rgSIzP8xBKA
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Yeah shit just got real.
Got this from another group:
Russia INVADES Ukraine. US Arrogance On NATO Made Things Worse: Lt. Col. Daniel Davis (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=31HwXL4w8Nk)
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Putin suffered heavy losses
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Ang Russian invasion kaya ay parang 1980 Red Dawn? May airborne din?
Been tuned in to the Al Jazeera live stream. They just said there are reports of Russian paratroopers are seizing airfields.
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Putin suffered heavy losses
Thats pretty much the Ukrainians will have to do, bleed out Russia.
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Javellin anti tank is a game changer. 80 russians paratroopers captured while score of tanks was destroyed. 7 aircraft shotdown by the ukranian military. 40 ukranian military killed some border guards surrendered without a fight. Terminating the swift code will further weaken the ruble.
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so what happens to those citizens of both country that are on both sides?
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Sadly there are reports that the home base of the world's largest and the only one of its kind Antonov-225 Miriya, Hostomel Airport has seen heavy fighting with early reports saying it has been destroyed. Though the airport has been retaken by Ukrainian forces and the plane is confirmed to be still intact.
The Miriya is and has been used to transport several important cargo to the Philippines such as the AW Lynxes and the Blackhawks.
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Terminating the swift code will further weaken the ruble.
That seems iffy (https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/feb/24/kyiv-furious-as-eu-wavers-on-banning-russia-from-swift-payment-system). Germany just outright voted against (https://www.politico.eu/article/germanys-scholz-opposes-inclusion-of-swift-in-russia-sanctions/) cutting off Russia from SWIFT.
Parang ayaw din ng US (https://www.reuters.com/business/finance/eu-unlikely-cut-russia-off-swift-now-sources-say-2022-02-24/).
TBH I don't think the payment system is going to be turned off coz it affects EU too much. Germany made a big deal about shutting down coal and nuclear and replacing with renewables, but a lot of their power is now coming from gas. They'll shut down the Russian gas pipeline and buy from "Turkey" instead (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/TurkStream).
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(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FMa19O_VkAEKsIT?format=jpg&name=small)
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The Ghost Of Kyiv - if this is true then this mig-29 pilot is a badass downing 6 jets
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Man, I feel for the guy... his body language and sobering tone pretty much sums it up... that feeling of being abandoned and betrayed. At one point he already mentioned getting back in talks with Russia on the possibility of Ukraine becoming "neutral" which I think is the most rational choice and a step in the right direction. Be more like Finland.
If no one else is willing to help you, and you are getting beaten up, then what else can you really do?
As much as Ukraine feels it has every right to join NATO, the possibility of ICBMs being setup in Ukraine soil is simply driving the Russians nuts... and they have proven time and again that they are willing to go to war for it. That is just the reality of it. Ukraine is to Russia as Cuba is to the Americans.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jr3ACFyXB78 (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jr3ACFyXB78)
(https://i.imgur.com/DgiDkKI.jpg)
(https://i.imgur.com/61AA5Eh.jpg)
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If there is one lesson to be learned here, it is the importance of having a fully independent foreign policy which reminds me of what Claro M. Recto has been saying all this time.
Sentimentalism and emotionalism should not play a part in international relations. It is folly to expect any nation to ever sacrifice its welfare and security to pure idealism or to sentimental attachments. As Filipinos, we must look out for ourselves, because no one else will. That is the essence of our independence.
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what's china stance on this? Both countries are important her.
And what could it learn in the case of TW
sorry but i have limited news here in the middle kingdom
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what's china stance on this? Both countries are important her.
And what could it learn in the case of TW
sorry but i have limited news here in the middle kingdom
Fully supportive of Putin.
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If there is one lesson to be learned here, it is the importance of having a fully independent foreign policy which reminds me of what Claro M. Recto has been saying all this time.
Sentimentalism and emotionalism should not play a part in international relations. It is folly to expect any nation to ever sacrifice its welfare and security to pure idealism or to sentimental attachments. As Filipinos, we must look out for ourselves, because no one else will. That is the essence of our independence.
^ or why picking a boneheaded fight with China over a bunch of islands claimed by at least four other countries has always been a bad idea.
Opinion/analysis piece on sanctions:
New world order: Russia has just turned itself into a commodity superpower (https://www.smh.com.au/business/the-economy/new-world-order-russia-has-just-turned-itself-into-a-commodity-superpower-20220225-p59zkb.html)
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If there is one lesson to be learned here, it is the importance of having a fully independent foreign policy which reminds me of what Claro M. Recto has been saying all this time.
Sentimentalism and emotionalism should not play a part in international relations. It is folly to expect any nation to ever sacrifice its welfare and security to pure idealism or to sentimental attachments. As Filipinos, we must look out for ourselves, because no one else will. That is the essence of our independence.
^ or why picking a boneheaded fight with China over a bunch of islands claimed by at least four other countries has always been a bad idea.
Opinion/analysis piece on sanctions:
New world order: Russia has just turned itself into a commodity superpower (https://www.smh.com.au/business/the-economy/new-world-order-russia-has-just-turned-itself-into-a-commodity-superpower-20220225-p59zkb.html)
Well, that works too although I was thinking more along the lines of when China eventually invades Taiwan to reunify or when China and U.S. rivalry eventually escalates into armed conflict because the Americans are pivoting to Asia now and will try to contain China thru Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, India, and possibly us.
Historically speaking, countries who have remained "neutral" were mostly spared from heavy casualties during the previous world war like Sweden, Finland and even Thailand... while we got clobbered pretty bad all because of our affiliations with the Americans. We are of strategic and logistical importance to the Americans because we serve as a shield or barrier for them into the Pacific and nothing more. Do we really want to be part of that?
I think moving forward, what our foreign policy should be is that that we will continue to work and maintain friendly relations with any or all countries (including U.S. and China) in matters concerning economic partnerships and cooperation. Any defense related cooperation, we maintain observer status at best but will not be fully affiliated... In case war breaks out, we will never have to choose sides. We just tell them off and say sorry, just duke it out amongst themselves, we will have none of it.
We will still have to shore up our military capability but it will mostly serve as deterrent or similar to Singapore's "poison shrimp" defense doctrine.
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The problem with sanctioning Russia, applies even more to China if they decide to take Taiwan:
War in Ukraine: Britons support sanctions, but not if it means costs rise | YouGov (https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2022/02/24/war-ukraine-britons-support-sanctions-not-if-it-me)
(https://i.imgur.com/sYXU0Ou.png)
The Ghost Of Kyiv - if this is true then this mig-29 pilot is a badass downing 6 jets
Feels like fake news from someone farming fake internet points.
Been glued to the broadcasts and Ukraine is claiming to have shot down 2 missiles and one jet. If someone in their air force downed 6 jets we'd be hearing a lot more about it.
https://taskandpurpose.com/analysis/ghost-kyiv/
Here’s the problem with the Ghost of Kyiv. Every atom of my body tells me that this story is 99.9% bullshit, an ingenious piece of organic digital storytelling that morphed into a convenient grassroots propaganda narrative. But amid horrific footage that appears to show Russian fighter jets firing missiles at civilian populations, I want to believe — and I know I’m not the only one.
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If there is one lesson to be learned here, it is the importance of having a fully independent foreign policy which reminds me of what Claro M. Recto has been saying all this time.
Sentimentalism and emotionalism should not play a part in international relations. It is folly to expect any nation to ever sacrifice its welfare and security to pure idealism or to sentimental attachments. As Filipinos, we must look out for ourselves, because no one else will. That is the essence of our independence.
The lesson is self-sufficiency in defense. Having allies is good but you have to be able to also do it on your own.
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I'm afraid China will do the same to Taiwan. Xi must be thinking of it right now. tsk
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The lesson is self-sufficiency in defense. Having allies is good but you have to be able to also do it on your own.
Except there's no such thing if a superpower with a crazy person at the helm suddenly goes all your base are belong to us.
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Russian Invaders Frustrated By Stiff Ukraine Resistance
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10555871/Kyiv-comes-huge-aerial-artillery-bombardment-leaving-pulsing-glow-sky.html?ito=social-facebook&fbclid=IwAR0Xa35CG-61245eGZZPgdWcD1ArArys7bxzH_xFlNPcCZaEmgGgj26-1Xo (https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10555871/Kyiv-comes-huge-aerial-artillery-bombardment-leaving-pulsing-glow-sky.html?ito=social-facebook&fbclid=IwAR0Xa35CG-61245eGZZPgdWcD1ArArys7bxzH_xFlNPcCZaEmgGgj26-1Xo)
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Xi call on Putin to negotiate
https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/world-news/china-begins-turn-putin-calls-26334387
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"The Ghost of Kyiv" ace
https://youtu.be/ee3kW_Qwy8A
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A Prayer for Volodymyr Zelensky : History has found the Ukrainian president, and his courage is remarkable to witness. | The Atlantic (https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2022/02/volodymyr-zelensky-ukraine-president/622938/)
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Zelensky agrees to talks, but not in Belarus
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/ukraine-zelenskyy-russia-crisis-putin-peace-talks-b2024252.html
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Airplanes 27
Helicopters 26
Tanks 146
Battle armored cars 706
Cannon 49
ZRK BUK 1
City 4
Automobile equipment 30
Cisterns 60
BPLA OTR 2
Ships / Boats 2
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Debunking fake Russia Ukraine War videos spread on social media. (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=98cXig0hOVw)
Everything is fake lol!
That father having a tearly eyed farewell and sending away his wife and kids was going to fight... AGAINST Ukraine!
There were 82 guys on Snake island, not 13. And the Russians didn't kill those guys but instead helped them with food and water after they surrendered.
"Ghost of Kiev" is DCS
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EU to resupply Ukraine with ex-Soviet aircraft.
https://youtu.be/C2Sa8idATO0
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this is so sad
https://www.tmz.com/2022/02/28/6-year-old-girl-ukraine-russia-shelling/
https://www.thesun.ie/news/8435605/girl-shot-dead-russian-troops-parents-kids-slaughtered/
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If I were Putin, I'd be wary of China. For now its supportive, but they are in a way rivals for influence in Asia, having fought several skirmishes and proxy wars in the past. Its likely observing Russia's performance in Ukraine just like Germany in Finland in 1939.
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...& the world realized that the armament & military of russia is not what we where thinking about
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If I were Putin, I'd be wary of China. For now its supportive, but they are in a way rivals for influence in Asia, having fought several skirmishes and proxy wars in the past. Its likely observing Russia's performance in Ukraine just like Germany in Finland in 1939.
The CCP leadership is probably watching and learning from the mistakes of Putin and the global reaction to the invasion of Ukraine so they will know better if and when they invade Taiwan.
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classic tank column ambush
https://theaviationist.com/2022/03/10/ukraine-anti-armor-ambush/?fbclid=IwAR0f9HzMiNX3bcWeoLv52GUJOX7D0_E5LDu4YhbJmk1YoLLqL5HEf8_fgU4
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...& the world realized that the armament & military of russia is not what we where thinking about
kirov airship, tesla tank, apocalypse tank :)
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...& the world realized that the armament & military of russia is not what we where thinking about
they have nukes tho….
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that!
i hope he doesn't get the finger itch!
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that!
i hope he doesn't get the finger itch!
Russia did put their strategic air forces (euphemism for nukes) on alert last week.
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Why implementing a no-fly zone over Ukraine isn't feasible:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Hob1nbP_UKM (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Hob1nbP_UKM)
(https://i.imgur.com/g2kLkJv.png)
tl;dr: Aside from being a ticket to WW3 the contested areas would be also covered by Russian SAMs, making it unfeasible, if not impractical and ineffective at best.
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More bad news, a US base and consulate in Iraq hit by cruise missiles said to be from Iran.
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Chinese made tires just stalled the russian advance.
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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XuDi720z2bc (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XuDi720z2bc)
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RT channel broadcast the location of a landing ship and was completely destroyed by ukranian forces.
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Ukrainian soldier flies Chinese drone, gets instantly targeted by a Russian missile.
https://imgur.com/uzxW5Ab (https://imgur.com/uzxW5Ab)
Looks like a DJI Mavic? The missile comes in on his position just seconds after he retrieves the drone...
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https://youtu.be/W9pVEP0AzZ4
Be careful drawing conclusions from the Ukraine videos. - The Chieftain
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https://youtu.be/W9pVEP0AzZ4 (https://youtu.be/W9pVEP0AzZ4)
Be careful drawing conclusions from the Ukraine videos. - The Chieftain
I've seen him before. Is/was he the spokesperson of the World of Tanks game?
Anyway, about the video, yeah, propaganda comes from all sides but Ukraine needs all the morale and support they can get to resist the invasion. There's plenty of evidence of the Russian military's ineptitude and low morale which have practically negated their superior military advantage in an invasion that was supposed to have been decisive and with the expectation for it to have ended in a matter of days, and yet here we are.
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Great vid. I love how he casually throws in some really geeky terms like 'saving throw' while analyzing war footage.
Speaking of tanks:
https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/18078663/russian-soldier-surrenders-tank-ukrainian-citizenship/
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Russia has General Winter, Ukraine has General Radiation
(https://scontent.fmnl4-6.fna.fbcdn.net/v/t39.30808-6/277786260_10158794908971089_5297258098106170939_n.jpg?_nc_cat=107&ccb=1-5&_nc_sid=730e14&_nc_eui2=AeG2rdIlLcY5La1DzQRhP2QBUN3aIeDGAdtQ3doh4MYB2xkJX4E4ZBEgzj90o4k2rcU&_nc_ohc=5LrfB134WxsAX-YmiaJ&_nc_ht=scontent.fmnl4-6.fna&oh=00_AT_87C1RGa6khaAgicHlyQ5CBr5UzGEm2sEPj95z_GPzuw&oe=624C9A15)
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https://arstechnica.com/tech-policy/2022/04/huawei-faces-dilemma-over-russia-links-that-risk-further-us-sanctions/
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flagship Moskva was hit by a ukranian missile.
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flagship Moskva was hit by a ukranian missile.
And...it sunk. Apparently, this was the flagship that was told to "go fuck yourself" by Ukrainian soldiers stationed on Snake Island. Karma is a bitch.
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(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FQiYjfUXEAQ_eGO?format=jpg&name=large)
Someone recreated a plausible successful method of attack on the ship on DCS.
https://youtu.be/GngwrU_JYg8
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More on the US side:
Why Defense Experts and Lawmakers Think the Pentagon's Budget "Sucks" - Ward Carroll | Youtube (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=f9-ArzOhSGI)
Dami active and ex military guys galit sa Biden admin coz of their strategy. They think that in the near term the number of decomissionings will create an opportunity for China to attack Taiwan.
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Saw a lot of footage in trench warfare but I dont see any Russians using claymore to defend themselves.